dolar+and+election+history

 = What The Dollar Will Do Next Week = September 6, 2013, 11:54 am Kochie's Business Builders Yahoo!7 History points to the dollar and sharemarket heading higher.     The Australian dollar is expected to strengthen further next week, following the removal of political uncertainty so important to investors, businesses and consumers. There’s a track record to go on too, with Commsec research showing both the Australian dollar and the local sharemarket have risen in the three weeks following the last five Federal Elections. The Australian dollar has lifted 2.7% against the US dollar following the past five elections, while the All Ordinaries index has risen by 2.1%. Commsec chief economist Craig James points out that since the Australian dollar was floated in December 1983, there have been 10 Federal elections and the Australian dollar has risen on seven occasions and fallen three times in the three weeks after each poll. [|Related: Kochie's Tips To Tackle Taxes] And, on average, the Aussie dollar has appreciated by 1.2% against the US dollar in the three weeks after elections. “Clearly there is a lot more happening at election time than just domestic political manoeuvrings. For instance in the current period, fears of a military attack on Syria, domestic economic data, a Reserve Bank Board meeting and speculation of the ‘tapering’ of US monetary policy stimulus are key issues” James says. “But both the Australian dollar and Australian sharemarket have lifted modestly since the election was called.” In recent history, the trend is especially strong. The dollar has appreciated against the greenback following each of the last six Federal Elections, including the 2007 and 1996 polls that involved changes of government. [|Related: The Richest States & Sectors In Australia] On average, at the last five elections the Australian dollar appreciated 2.7% in the three weeks after the poll date. As to the wider economic implications following tomorrow’s poll, CommSec expects the economy to lift once election uncertainty is removed. “Certainly the housing market is already showing encouraging signs; next we would hope to see some improvement in consumer spending, business confidence and employment”, James writes. “The Aussie dollar is a bit more problematic with Syria and US monetary policy key influences together with domestic politics. But if the Australian economy lifts, the Reserve Bank would be more reluctant to cut rates again, supporting the Aussie dollar.” It seems the only way is up, starting with the Aussie dollar next week.